Narrator: Listen to part of a lecture in an Economics class.

旁白：听一段经济学课堂的录音。

Professor: Now when I mention the terms “boom and bust”, what does that bring to mind?

教授：提及“繁荣与泡沫”，同学们都会想起哪些经济事件？

Student: The dot-com crash of the 90s.

学生：90年代末的互联网泡沫危机。

Professor: Ok. The boom in the late 1990s when all those new Internet companies sprang up and were then sold for huge amounts of money.

教授：是的。互联网行业兴起于二十世纪九十年代，当时诸多互联网公司蓬勃兴起，并持续以高价转手。

Then the bust around 2000... 2001 when many of those same Internet companies went out of business.

直到约2001年，许多公司都面临破产，互联网行业的繁荣也就宣告终结。

Of course, booms aren't always followed by busts.

当然，行业繁荣并不总是以泡沫而告终。

We've certainly seen times when local economies expanded rapidly for a while and then went back to a normal pace of growth.

在许多时期，地区经济在高速扩张后回落，继续以正常速率发展。

But, there's a type of rapid expansion, what might be called a hysterical or irrational boom that pretty much always leads to a bust.

然而，确实存在一种剧烈的行业扩张，被称为超速或非理性繁荣，它通常以产业泡沫破裂而终结。

See, people often create and intensify a boom when they get carried away by some new industry that seems like it will make them lots of money fast.

一旦某一新兴产业能够迅速带来巨额财富，人们便忘乎所以地不断地为膨胀的行业泡沫加砝码，（直到产业彻底崩溃）。

You'd think that by the 90s, people would have learned from the past.

同学们或许认为，经济发展到九十年代，人们应该学会吸取教训，以理性的态度对待产业发展。

If they did, well, look at tulips.

然而事实并非如此，让我们来回顾郁金香产业泡沫的崩溃过程。

Student: Tulips? You mean like the flower?

学生：郁金香？您是指花卉？

Professor: Exactly. For instance, do you have any idea where tulips are from?

教授：是的。同学们知道郁金香发源自何处吗？

Originally I mean.

我指的是最开始的。

Student: Well, the Netherlands, right?

学生：应该是荷兰，对吗？

Professor: That's what most people think, but no.

教授：许多人都这样认为，但事实并非如此。

They are not native to the Netherlands, or even Europe.

郁金香并非原产自荷兰或者欧洲的其他地区。

Tulips actually hail from an area that Chinese call the Celestial Mountains in Central Asia, a very remote mountainous region.

郁金香起源于亚种中部，一个被中国人称为昆仑山脉的地方，这是个非常偏远的地区。

It was Turkish nomads who first discovered tulips and spread them slowly westward.

土耳其游牧人最先发现了郁金香并将其逐渐带往西方。

Now, around the 16th century, Europeans were traveling to Istanbul and Turkey as merchants and diplomats.

在十六世纪左右，欧洲人不断前往伊斯坦布尔和土耳其经商或从事政治外交活动。

And the Turks often gave the Europeans tulip bulbs as gifts which they would carry home with them.

当地人便将郁金香球茎作为礼物赠送给欧洲人。

For the Europeans, tulips were totally unheard of, Er... a great novelty.

对欧洲人而言，郁金香是闻所未闻的极为新奇的物种。

The first bulbs to show up in the Netherlands, the merchant who received them roasted and ate them!

最初其球茎出现在荷兰时，商人就烤了吃了！

He thought they were kind of onion.

因为他们认为它是一种洋葱。

It turns out that the Netherlands was an ideal country for growing tulips.

事实证明，荷兰的气候极其适合郁金香的种植。

It had the right kind of sandy soil for one thing, but also, it was a wealthy nation with a growing economy, willing to spend lots of money on new exotic things.

一方面，荷兰当地拥有适宜郁金香生长的沙状土，另一方面，荷兰人们十分富有，经济发展迅速，愿意在新奇事物上花大量的钱。

Plus, the Dutch had a history of gardening.

另外，荷兰人生性喜爱园艺。

Wealthy people would compete, spending enormous amounts of money to buy the rarest flowers for their gardens.

富人之间会竞争，为他们的花园，花重金收购买最稀有的花卉品种。（郁金香产业因此面临巨大的消费需求。）

Soon tulips were beginning to show up in different colors as growers tried to breed them specifically for colors which would make them even more valuable.

不久之后，因为种植者试图把郁金香培育出特定的颜色让它们更加值钱，所以郁金香开始呈现出不同的颜色。

But they were never completely sure what they would get.

但是他们永远不能确定自己培育出了什么颜色。

Some of the most prized tulips were white with purple streaks, or red with yellow streaks on the petals, even a dark purple tulip that was very much prized.

当时最为贵重的郁金香种类包括花瓣上带有紫色彩带的白色花朵、带有黄色彩带的红色花朵以及深紫色花朵等。

What happened then was a craze for these specialized tulips.

紧接着一场围绕特色郁金香的产业狂潮便展开了。

We called that craze “tulip mania”.

经济学家称之为“郁金香狂潮”。

So, here we've got all the conditions for an irrational boom: a prospering economy, so more people had more disposable income, money to spend on luxuries, but they weren't experienced at investing their new wealth.

于是，我们得到了非理性繁荣的全部条件：首次，在繁荣的经济环境下越来越多的人拥有可支配的收入，有可以用于购买奢侈品的钱，但是他们在投资方面毫无经验。

Then along comes a thrilling new commodity.

其次，出现某种新奇刺激的商品。

Sure the first specimens were just plain old red tulips, but they could be bred into some extraordinary variations, like the dark purple tulip.

虽然最初的郁金香品种较为普通的绛红色，但随后种植者培育出各种奇特的变种，例如深紫色郁金香等等。

And finally, you have an unregulated market place, no government constraints, where prices could explode.

最后，产业市场缺乏政府监管，价格得以自由攀升。

And explode they did, starting in the 1630s.

郁金香价格在十七世纪三十年代开始暴涨。

There was always much more demand for tulips than supply.

对于郁金香的需求远远大于供给。

Tulips didn’t bloom frequently like roses.

不像玫瑰，郁金香并不会经常开花。

Tulips bloomed once in the early spring.

郁金香在早春开放一次。

And that was it for the year.

然而，全年只有这一个花季。

Eventually, specially-bred multicolored tulips became so valuable.

最终，特殊培育的混色的郁金香变得十分珍贵。

Well, according to records, one tulip bulb was worth 24 tons of wheat, or a thousand pounds of cheese.

根据历史记录，一枚郁金香球茎的价值相当于24吨小麦或者一千磅的奶酪。

One particular tulip bulb was sold and exchanged for a small ship.

某种特殊球茎甚至与小型轮船等值。

In other words, tulips were literally worth their weight in gold.

换句话说，郁金香已如黄金般珍贵。

As demand grew, people began selling promissory notes guaranteeing the future delivery of prized tulip bulbs.

随着市场需求的不断膨胀，商人开始出售本票来确保未来高价郁金香的供给。

The buyers of these pieces of paper would resell the notes at marked up prices.

而本票购买者则以更高价格再次出售本票获利。

These promissory notes kept changing hands from buyer to buyer until the tulip was ready for delivery.

这些本票在不同投资者之间转手，直到最终郁金香球茎正式交货才会停止。

But it was all pure speculation because as I said, there was no way to know if the bulb was really going to produce the variety, the color that was promised.

但是这完全是猜测，像我说的，根本无从得知郁金香球茎是否能够培育出承诺的颜色。

But that didn’t matter to the owner of the note.

但本票投资者并不关心这一信息。

The owner only cared about having that piece of paper so it could be traded later at a profit.

这些投机商人只关心本票的价格能否在未来转变为高额利润。

And people were borrowing, mortgaging their homes in many cases to obtain those bits of paper because they were sure they found an easy way to make money.

人们甚至通过借款、抵押住房来购买郁金香本票，以为自己发现了一夜暴富的捷径。

So now, you've got all the ingredients for a huge bust.

现在同学们已经知晓了经济泡沫破裂的所有必要条件。

And bust it did, when one cold February morning in 1637, a group of bulb traders got together and discovered that suddenly there were no bidders.

经济崩溃最终发生了，在1637年2月的一个寒冷的早上，一群郁金香球茎售卖者聚在一起，发现突然间不再有出价者了。

Nobody wanted to buy.

再没有人要买了。

Panic spread like wild fire and the tulip market collapsed totally.

恐慌情绪如野火般肆意蔓延，郁金香市场彻底崩溃了。