SECTION 4

Well, I've been talking to managers in a number of businesses, and reading surveys about the future of management.

好的，我们已经谈到了不同行业的经理，并且读到了有关未来管理的调查。

And what I'm going to present in this seminar is a few ideas about how the activity is likely to change in the next ten years.

我在这个研讨会里即将展示的是未来十年管理可能发生怎样的改变。

It isn't a scientific, statistical analysis – just some ideas for us to discuss.

这并不是科学性的，统计性的分析，只是一些供我们讨论的想法。

One area I want to mention is business markets, and I'm sure a really significant development will be a major increase in competition, with companies from all round the world trying to sell similar products.

我想涉及的一个领域是商业市场，我敢肯定一个重大的发展是伴随着来自世界各地的公司销售类似的产品，竞争上的大幅增长。

Consumers will have much more choice – for instance, food products sold in Australia might be manufactured in the USA, China, Finland and dozens of other countries.

消费者会有更多的选择，比如，在澳洲出售的食品可能在美国、中国、芬兰等等很多国家制造。

At the same time, mergers and takeovers mean that governments are actually losing power to major global corporations.

与此同时，兼并和收购意味着政府对主要的全球性公司控制力降低。

We can probably all think of companies that exert a great deal of influence, which may be good for consumers.

我们可能都在考虑那些发挥着重大影响的公司，这可能对于消费者是件好事。

A third point I want to make about markets is that in the rapidly expanding economies, such as India, China, Brazil and Russia, demand is growing very fast.

我想说的有关市场的第三点是，在急速扩张的经济体中，比如印度、中国、巴西和俄罗斯，需求也在快速增长。

This is putting pressure on resources all over the world.

这对全球的资源都造成了压力。

I think businesses are becoming more open to external influences.

我认为外部因素对商业的影响越来越大。

In particular, companies are consulting customers more and more before making their business decisions.

特别是，在做出商业决定前，公司会越来越多的询问消费者。

Companies are finding out what they want and providing it, instead of making products and then trying to sell them, which is the model of years ago.

生产产品然后设法把它们卖出去是很多年前的模型。取而代之的是，现在公司发现消费者想要什么，并且提供给他们。

Another influence is that concerns about the environment will force manufacturers to extend product lifecycles, to reduce the amount of pollution and waste.

另外一个影响是对于环境的考量会迫使生产厂商延长产品的生命周期，以便减少污染和废物。

And in some cases, regulation will need to be strengthened.

在某些情况下，法规需要加强。

Many societies are much more fluid and democratic, and the structure of companies is changing to reflect that.

很多社会现在更具有流动性和民主，公司的结构也正通过改变来显示这一点。

I think we're going to see a greater emphasis within companies on teams created with a specific project in mind.

我认为在公司里，我们会看到更多对于团队的侧重，这些团队都是为了头脑中的某一个项目而建立的。

And when they're completed, the teams will be disbanded and new ones formed.

当他们完成任务后，团队会解散，新的团队又会组建。

More and more people see work as simply one part of their lifestyle, and not the most important one, and as the workforce is shrinking in some countries, businesses are having to compete for staff instead of being able to choose among a lot of applicants.

越来越多的人认为工作只是他们生活方式的一部分，也不是最重要的那部分。当某些国家的劳动力开始萎缩时，公司开始要为员工而竞争，而不是从很多的申请者中选择。

Typical examples that will attract and retain staff are traditional ones like flexible hours and – something that has been made possible by advances in technology – remote working, with people based at their home, abroad, or almost anywhere they choose.

吸引并且能留住员工的典型例子是传统的那些案例，比如灵活的工作时间，以及利用科技进步实现的一些内容——远程办公。人们在家、在国外，或者在任何他们选择的地方工作。

Management styles will almost certainly continue to change.

几乎可以肯定，管理方式会继续改变。

Senior managers will require a lot more than the efficiency that they've always needed.

除了一直需要的效率，高级经理需要更多的素质。

Above all they'll need great skills in leadership, so that their organisation can initiate and respond to change in a fast-moving world, where they face lots of competing requirements and potential conflicts.

除此以外，他们需要领导力方面的大量技能，以便他们的组织可以在这个快速变化的世界开启并且回应变化，在这个世界中他们要面对大量的竞争要求和潜在的冲突。

In most of the world, the senior managers of large businesses are mainly men in their fifties and sixties.

在大部分世界中，大型机构的高级经理主要是五、六十岁的男性。

The predominant style of management will almost certainly become more consultative and collaborative, caused above all, by more women moving into senior management positions.

通过将更多的女性引入高级管理的职位，占主导地位的管理形式因为以上的变化几乎一定会变得越发有协商性和协作性。

Many of the changes are influenced by developments in the wider economy.

很多变化受到更广泛的经济发展的影响。

The traditional emphasis of business was manufacturing, and of course the service sector is very important.

传统商业的重点是制造，当然服务也很重要。

But we shouldn't overlook the growing financial contribution of IP, that is, intellectual property.

但是我们不应该忽略IP也就是知识产权对于增长的金融贡献。

Some books and films generate enormous sums from the sale of related DVDs, music, games, clothes, and so on.

有些书和电影产生了大量的来自相关的DVD、音乐、游戏、服装等等的销量。

Another point I'd like to make is that although I've been talking about companies, one trend that they have to face is the move away from people working for the same employer for years.

另一个我想说的观点是尽管我已经谈到了公司，他们要面对的一个趋势是告别人们多年来为同一个雇主工作的情况。

Instead. more and more people are becoming self-employed, to gain the freedom and control over their lives that they're unlikely to get from being employed.

取而代之的是，越来越多的人成为了自由职业者，以便获得自由的同时可以掌控自己的生活，这是他们受雇于别人时不可能得到的。

OK, well that's all I want to say, so let's open it up for discussion.

好的，那这些就是我想说的，下面我们开始讨论。